Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. C. Pryor  R. J. Barthelmie  N. E. Clausen  M. Drews  N. MacKellar  E. Kjellstr?m 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(1-2):189-208

Dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 using HIRHAM5 and RCA3 for a northern European domain focused on Scandinavia indicates sustained extreme wind speeds with long recurrence intervals (50?years) and intense winds are not likely to evolve out of the historical envelope of variability until the end of C21st. Even then, significant changes are indicated only in the SW of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea where there is some evidence for relatively small magnitude increases in the 50?year return period wind speed (of up to 15%). There are marked differences in results based on the two Regional Climate Models. Additionally, internal (inherent) variability and initial conditions exert a strong impact on projected wind climates throughout the twenty-first century. Simulations of wind gusts by one of the RCMs (RCA3) indicate some evidence for increased magnitudes (of up to +10%) in the southwest of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea by the end of the current century. As in prior downscaling of ECHAM4, dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 indicates a tendency towards increased energy density and thus wind power generation potential over the course of the C21st. However, caution should be used in interpreting this inference given the high degree of wind climate projection spread that derives from the specific AOGCM and RCM used in the downscaling.  相似文献   

Some evidence on European monsoon existence     

D. Radinovi?  M. ?uri? 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):11-15

Large-scale European atmospheric circulation induced by temperature differences between the continent and the North Atlantic Ocean causes thermodynamic and climatic conditions that initiate a European monsoon. In Eastern Europe, the rainy season occurs in early summer, and the dry season occurs in winter. In Western Europe, the rainy season is in the early winter and the dry season is in the spring. This precipitation trend, as well as other climatic features, suggests the existence of a European monsoon.  相似文献   

The climate tourism potential of Alpine destinations using the example of Sonnblick, Rauris and Salzburg     

Andreas Matzarakis  Martin H?mmerle  Elisabeth Koch  Ernest Rudel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(4):645-658

The climate tourism potential of a region can be described by methods used in human biometeorology and applied climatology. Frequency analyses based on complex thermal bioclimatic indices (e.g. physiologically equivalent temperature) and diagrams of precipitation patterns based on thresholds offer new approaches of visualisation. An integral approach for tourism climatologic analyses is provided by the climate?Ctourism/transfer?Cinformation?Cscheme that also bases on frequency distributions of relevant factors and parameters which are important for a destination. The knowledge about the vertical variability of tourism climatologic factors is of high importance because of the several kinds of tourism activities affected by weather. The same holds for a quantification of extreme events like heat waves because of their possible effects on health and recreation over a year's course. The results show that the vertical gradient of bioclimatic and tourism-related parameters can be of value when developing strategies of adaption to climate change.  相似文献   

Special issue: 125?years of high-mountain research at Sonnblick Observatory (Austrian Alps)     

Hartmut Gra?l  Michael Hantel  Mathias W. Rotach  Ernest Rudel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(4):489-490

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Geochemistry and mineralogy of shallow alluvial aquifers in Daudkandi upazila in the Meghna flood plain, Bangladesh   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Aziz Hasan  Mattias von Br?mssen  Prosun Bhattacharya  Kazi Matin Ahmed  Arif Mohiuddin Sikder  Gunnar Jacks  Ondra Sracek 《Environmental Geology》2009,57(3):499-511

The shallow alluvial aquifers of the delta plains and flood plains of Bangladesh, comprises about 70% of total land area are mostly affected by elevated concentrations of arsenic (As) in groundwater exposing a population of more than 35 million to As toxicity. Geochemical studies of shallow alluvial aquifer in the Meghna flood plain show that the uppermost yellowish grey sediment is low in As (1.03 mg/kg) compared to the lower dark grey to black sediment (5.24 mg/kg) rich in mica and organic matter. Sequential extraction data show that solid phase As bound to poorly crystalline and amorphous metal (Fe, Mn, Al)-oxyhydroxides is dominant in the grey to dark grey sediment and reaches its maximum level (3.05 mg/kg) in the mica rich layers. Amount of As bound to sulphides and organic matter also peaks in the dark grey to black sediment. Vertical distributions of major elements determined by X-ray fluorescence (XRF) show that iron (Fe₂O₃), aluminum (Al₂O₃) and manganese (MnO) follow the general trend of distribution of As in the sediments. Concentrations of As, Mn, Fe, HCO₃ ⁻, SO₄ ²⁻ and NO₃ ⁻ in groundwater reflect the redox status of the aquifer and are consistent with solid phase geochemistry. Mineralogical analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fitted with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS) revealed dominance of crystalline iron oxides and hydroxides like magnetite, hematite and goethite in the oxidised yellowish grey sediment. Amorphous Fe-oxyhydroxides identified as grain coating in the mica and organic matter rich sediment suggests weathering of biotite is playing a critical role as the source of Fe(III)-oxyhydroxides which in turn act as sink for As. Presence of authigenic pyrite in the dark grey sediment indicates active reduction in the aquifer.  相似文献   

Reduced sulfur species in a stratified seawater lake (Rogoznica Lake, Croatia); seasonal variations and argument for organic carriers of reactive sulfur     

Elvira Bura-Naki?  Irena Ciglene?ki  Bo?ena ?osovi? 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(13):3738-154

Over a period of a year, Hg⁰-reactive, total reduced sulfur species (RSS_T), as well as a non-volatile fraction that cannot be gas-stripped at pH ∼2 (RSS_NV), have been measured by voltammetry in a stratified, saline lake. In the hypolimnion, RSS_T is dominated by unusually high (up to 5 mM) dissolved divalent sulfur (S^−II), present as H₂S + HS⁻ and as inorganic polysulfides (H_xS_n^x−2). Less abundant RSS_NV is attributed to dissolved zero-valent sulfur (S⁰) in inorganic polysulfides. Assuming negligible contribution of organic S⁰ species in the hypolimnion, the equilibrium distribution of polysulfide ions is calculated; S₅²⁻ is found to predominate. In the epilimnion, all RSS_T consists of RSS_NV within analytical uncertainty. Through spring and summer, RSS_T and RSS_NV display little vertical or seasonal variation, but they increase dramatically when stratification breaks down in autumn. Based on decay rate, RSS during mixing events is attributed to dissolved S₈ from oxidation of sulfide and decomposition of inorganic polysulfides. This hypothesis quantitatively predicts precipitation of elemental sulfur in a year when colloidal sulfur was observed and predicts no precipitation in a year when it was not observed. Except during mixing events, the entire water column is undersaturated with respect to both rhombic sulfur and biologic sulfur, and the limited variations of RSS exclude hydrophobic and volatile aqueous S₈ as a major species. During such periods, RSS (typically 8 nM) may be associated with organic carbon, perhaps as adsorbed S₈ or as covalently bound polysulfanes or polysulfides. The hypolimnion is viewed as a zero-valent sulfur reactor that creates S⁰-containing, dissolved organic macromolecules during stable stratification periods. Some are sufficiently degradation-resistant and hydrophilic to be dispersed throughout the lake during mixing events, subsequently giving rise to ∼10⁻⁸ M RSS in the oxic water column. Voltammetrically determined RSS in oxic natural waters has often been described as “sulfide” or “metal complexed sulfide”, implying an oxidation state of S^−II; we argue that RSS in oxic Rogoznica Lake waters is mainly S⁰.  相似文献   

应用通量方差法估算戈壁绿洲下垫面湍流通量的研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王少影  张宇  吕世华 《大气科学》2010,34(6):1214-1222

利用“绿洲系统能量与水分循环过程观测试验” 2005年绿洲、戈壁点的观测资料, 分析与讨论了温度、水汽的归一化标准差随稳定度变化的通量方差关系, 应用通量方差法对感热、 潜热通量进行了计算, 并同涡动相关系统的观测结果进行了比较。不稳定条件下, 戈壁点温度归一化标准差随稳定度变化的通量方差关系优于下垫面非均匀性更强的绿洲点, 绿洲点水汽的归一化标准差随稳定度变化的通量方差关系较温度量表现得更好。对同一站点, 归一化温度标准差的通量方差关系并不总是优于水汽的通量方差关系, 其取决于该站点的温度以及水汽的源汇分布情况; 通量方差法对两个站点的感热、 潜热通量均有较好的再现, 但戈壁点感热通量的计算效果优于非均匀性更强的绿洲点。应用通量方差法对潜热通量计算时若采用直接观测的感热通量, 则潜热通量的计算效果具有一定程度的改善。  相似文献   

The Seismotectonics of the Po Plain (Northern Italy): Tectonic Diversity in a Blind Faulting Domain     

Paola?VannoliEmail author  Pierfrancesco?Burrato  Gianluca?Valensise 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(5):1105-1142

We present a systematic and updated overview of a seismotectonic model for the Po Plain (northern Italy). This flat and apparently quiet tectonic domain is, in fact, rather active as it comprises the shortened foreland and foredeep of both the Southern Alps and the Northern Apennines. Assessing its seismic hazard is crucial due to the concentration of population, industrial activities, and critical infrastructures, but it is also complicated because (a) the region is geologically very diverse, and (b) nearly all potential seismogenic faults are buried beneath a thick blanket of Pliocene–Pleistocene sediments, and thus can be investigated only indirectly. Identifying and parameterizing the potential seismogenic faults of the Po Plain requires proper consideration of their depth, geometry, kinematics, earthquake potential and location with respect to the two confronting orogens. To this end, we subdivided them into four main, homogeneous groups. Over the past 15 years we developed new strategies for coping with this diversity, resorting to different data and modeling approaches as required by each individual fault group. The most significant faults occur beneath the thrust fronts of the Ferrara-Romagna and Emilia arcs, which correspond to the most advanced and buried portions of the Northern Apennines and were the locus of the destructive May 2012 earthquake sequence. The largest known Po Plain earthquake, however, occurred on an elusive reactivated fault cutting the Alpine foreland south of Verona. Significant earthquakes are expected to be generated also by a set of transverse structures segmenting the thrust system, and by the deeper ramps of the Apennines thrusts. The new dataset is intended to be included in the next version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, version 3.2.0, developed and maintained by INGV) to improve completeness of potential sources for seismic hazard assessment.  相似文献   

Large Earthquakes at the Ibero-Maghrebian Region: Basis for an EEWS     

Elisa?BufornEmail author  Agustín?Udías  Carmen?Pro 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(9):2387-2396

Large earthquakes (M_w > 6, I_max > VIII) occur at the Ibero-Maghrebian region, extending from a point (12ºW) southwest of Cape St. Vincent to Tunisia, with different characteristics depending on their location, which cause considerable damage and casualties. Seismic activity at this region is associated with the boundary between the lithospheric plates of Eurasia and Africa, which extends from the Azores Islands to Tunisia. The boundary at Cape St. Vincent, which has a clear oceanic nature in the westernmost part, experiences a transition from an oceanic to a continental boundary, with the interaction of the southern border of the Iberian Peninsula, the northern border of Africa, and the Alboran basin between them, corresponding to a wide area of deformation. Further to the east, the plate boundary recovers its oceanic nature following the northern coast of Algeria and Tunisia. The region has been divided into four zones with different seismic characteristics. From west to east, large earthquake occurrence, focal depth, total seismic moment tensor, and average seismic slip velocities for each zone along the region show the differences in seismic release of deformation. This must be taken into account in developing an EEWS for the region.  相似文献   

An Overview of the 28 October 2012 M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.7 Earthquake in Haida Gwaii,Canada: A Tsunamigenic Thrust Event Along a Predominantly Strike-Slip Margin     

John?F.?CassidyEmail author  Garry?C.?Rogers  Roy?D.?Hyndman 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(12):3457-3465

The boundary between the Pacific and North America plates along Canada’s west coast is one of the most seismically active regions of Canada, and is where Canada’s two largest instrumentally recorded earthquakes have occurred. Although this is a predominantly strike-slip transform fault boundary, there is a component of oblique convergence between the Pacific and North America plates off Haida Gwaii. The 2012 M_w 7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake was a thrust event that generated a tsunami with significant run up of over 7 m in several inlets on the west coast of Moresby Island (several over 6 m, with a maximum of 13 m). Damage from this earthquake and tsunami was minor due to the lack of population and vulnerable structures on this coast.  相似文献